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| Hutchings, Timothy R.; Nordblom, Thomas L.. |
| This study analyses the financial risk faced by representative mixed-enterprise farm businesses in four regions of south-eastern Australia. It uses discrete stochastic programming to optimise the ten-year cash flow margins produced by these farms operating three different farming systems. Monte Carlo analysis is used to produce a risk profile for each scenario, derived from multiple runs of this optimised model, randomised for commodity prices and decadal growing season rainfall since 1920. This analysis shows that the performance of the enterprise mixes at each site is characterised more by the level of variability of possible outcomes than by the mean values of financial outputs. It demonstrates that relying on mean values for climate and prices... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Farm Management. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/101405 |
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| Hutchings, Timothy R.; Nordblom, Thomas L.. |
| This study analyses the financial risk faced by representative mixed-enterprise farm businesses in four regions of south-eastern Australia. It uses discrete stochastic programming to optimise the ten-year cash flow margins produced by these farms, operating three alternative farming systems. Monte Carlo simulation analysis is used to produce a risk profile for each scenario, derived from multiple runs of this optimised model, randomised for commodity prices and decadal growing season rainfall since 1920. This analysis shows that the performance of the enterprise mixes at each site is characterised more by the level of variability of outcomes than by the mean values of financial outputs. It demonstrates that relying on mean values for climate and prices... |
| Tipo: Article |
Palavras-chave: Farm management; Financial risk; Climate risk; Price risk; Variability; Farm Management. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120908 |
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| Hutchings, Timothy R.. |
| This study presents a method of simulating longer-term cash flows that reflect the cumulative effects of variation in seasons, prices, enterprise sequences and mixes and other management decisions. It can be used to develop full risk profiles on a whole-farm or individual-component enterprise basis for most dryland farms in southern Australia, at gross margin, profit or cash flow levels. This analysis concentrates on the cash flow implications of these various scenarios because cash flow is the indicator which includes all costs, and therefore demonstrates affordability and the long-term viability of the farm business entity. This study shows that the role of sheep in the mixed farming enterprise in south-eastern Australia is to reduce the exposure of the... |
| Tipo: Article |
Palavras-chave: Whole-farm planning; Cash flow; Sheep; Crops; Risk; Farm Management. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121467 |
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| Hutchings, Timothy R.. |
| This paper extends the long-term cash-flow simulations reported in Part I (Hutchings 2009) to include a range of seasonal scenarios at four representative dryland sites in south-eastern Australia. The effect of varying the proportion of sheep and cropping in the enterprise mix at each site on cash surpluses is discussed. The analysis shows that, for most sites, the cropping enterprises require better than average seasons, prices and water-use efficiencies to generate a positive cash flow and are subject to substantial variability and risk of loss. In contrast, the sheep enterprises show small but stable cash flows in all but extreme drought conditions. This paper emphasises the need to include site-specific, long-term variability and whole-farm costs in... |
| Tipo: Article |
Palavras-chave: Whole-farm planning; Cash flow; Sheep; Crops; Risk; Farm Management. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/121495 |
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| Hutchings, Timothy R.; Nordblom, Thomas L.; Li, Guangdi; Conyers, Mark. |
| A 12-year experiment designed to show the benefits of applying lime to acid soils when growing annual pasture, perennial pasture, and annual crops in rotations with annual or perennial pastures, provides the context for comparing methods of economic analysis. In this study enterprise gross margins are compared with whole-farm cumulative monthly cash flows derived using a business process model. The current study gave gross margins comparable with those of a recently published study based on the first 12 years of the same field experiment at Book Book near Wagga Wagga in southern NSW (Li et al., 2010). Both gross margin analyses indicated positive results for all treatments. However, because key fixed and capital cost items were not taken into account in... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Agribusiness. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59088 |
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